The “dismal science” of economics typically focuses on “bad” news. We clearly face many significant challenges…no argument here. However, there are also many favorable developments taking place within the U.S. economy. This is our semi-annual update of “Happy Talk.”  This Tea Leaf focuses ONLY on the “good” news…

• The Great Recession is over! The consensus of forecasting economists expects U.S. economic growth this year near 3.0% (after inflation), the strongest in five years

• The U.S. accounted for nearly one-third of the $1.1 trillion spent globally on research & development in the latest data available

• Total U.S. workplace fatalities declined to their lowest point on record last year

• The strongest U.S. job gains in four years are likely to be reported in coming months

• Donations to charities were near the all-time high in 2008, with more than $307 billion donated by individuals, foundations, and corporations. As a percentage of GDP, Americans gave twice as much as the next most charitable nation…England

• Energy-efficient appliances, cars, buildings, and other technologies that already exist could lower U.S. energy usage 30% by 2030

• Smoke-free laws in restaurants, bars, the workplace, etc. reduced the rate of heart attacks by an average of 17% after one year in those communities where the bans had been adopted

• The Dow average has rebounded 66% since its low in early March 2009, with even larger gains by other measures

• The income of women worldwide is expected to rise by $5.1 trillion by 2013 to $15.3 trillion, an increase of one-half

• During the early 1960s, the five-year survival rate from cancer for Americans was one in three. Today it is two in three…continuing to climb…and the highest in the world

• Roughly 80% of companies that suspended or reduced their 401(k) matches during the past 2-3 years plan to reinstate them this year

• The divorce rate dropped by one-third between 1981 and 2008, and is at its lowest level since 1970

• U.S. exports to China have risen roughly 24% per year since 2001, making China the fastest growing market for U.S. goods

• Conventional thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages have averaged just slightly below 5.00% in recent weeks, near the lowest levels on record

• Violent crime declined 4.4% during 2009’s first half, versus the year before.  Violent crime overall is down nearly 60% since 1993, with violence by teens down 71%.  School violence has declined by half from a decade ago

• The number of American volunteers rose 2.0% to 61.8 million in 2008. Among young adults, the number of volunteers rose 5.7%

• Air pollution declined 25% over the past 30 years even as the population and the economy grew.  Water quality also continues to improve.  More progress will occur in coming years as companies see rising value in “going green”

• The global economy has returned to modest growth after suffering its first recession since just after WWII 

• Cigarette smoking by teenagers is at the lowest point since measurement began in 1975

• Women now make up a record 46% of global MBA candidates. More than 70% of students surveyed name the U.S. as the top MBA study destination

• Men’s contribution to housework has doubled over the past 40 years, while their time spent on child care has tripled

• Productivity of U.S. workers rose an average of 2.8% annually during the past 10 years, the largest gains in 40 years. Rising productivity is a long-term key to higher standards of living

• The number of people who have quit smoking (46 million) now exceeds the number who still smoke (45 million).  Less than 21% of adults smoke today, versus nearly half in the early 1950s

• Traffic deaths per 100 million miles traveled during 2009’s first half were the lowest on record

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up a modest 2.1% during the most recent 12-month period

• The number of people using public transportation hit a 52-year high during 2008

• Alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the most recently reported year dropped by more than half versus 20 years ago

• Average U.S. life expectancy has reached 78 years (men 75, women 80), the highest ever.  This compares to 76 years in 1995, 68 years in 1950, and 47 in 1900

• For every dollar of U.S. economic output generated today, we burn less than half as much oil as 30 years ago

• Children’s deaths from unintentional injury have dropped by almost 40% since 1987. Bicycle deaths fell 60%, while firearms-related deaths fell 72%

• Roughly 30% of trash was recycled or composted in the latest year, versus 16% in 1990

• A record 50.5 million foreigners visited the U.S. during 2008

• The number of miners killed on the job in the U.S. fell to 34 during 2009, the lowest since recordkeeping began nearly a century ago

• Seat belt usage by Americans was at 82% in 2007, versus 49% in 1990 and 14% in 1983

• A recent poll of more than 12,000 global business figures conducted by the World Economic Forum ranked the U.S. as the world’s most competitive economy

• A record 29% of men have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher, versus 26% of women, also a record. This compares to a combined 7.7% in 1960.  A record 84.6% of adults over age 25 now have at least a high school diploma, versus 24.5% in 1940

• The upward “mobility” of the typical American remains the greatest in the world. Why? The U.S. economy “rewards” the combination of hard work and educational achievement more than ever before…and more than any other country in the world

• Substantiated cases of childhood sexual abuse have fallen 49% since 1990.  Physical abuse of children is down by 43%

• More than three million girls participated in high school sports last year, part of a record 7.3 million total participants

• The number of abortions performed in this country has declined by one-third since 1990 and is now at a record low

• Women earned nearly 60% of all bachelor’s degrees awarded in recent years, versus 43% in 1970 and 24% in 1950. Women earned a similar share of master’s degrees

• U.S. teen pregnancy and birth rates plummeted to all-time lows in recent years, before a slight rise. The reasons? More widespread use of birth control, more work opportunities, and more girls who “just say no”

• Flexible work schedules are now the norm for 43% of workers, up from 29% in 1992 and 13% in 1985. This allows greater flexibility for more people, especially those with children

• The number of police officers who died in the line of duty during 2009 was the lowest in 50 years

• The U.S. role of dominance in the global economy during the past decade was as clear-cut as at any time since the 1950s

                                                                       20 Reasons to list during the Holidays

1.)        Rates are averaging under 5%, the lowest in years. There’s no telling how long rates will last this low.

2.)        There is less competition for buyers.

3.)        Winter prospects are more serious buyers.

4.)        Your home looks better during the holidays.

5.)        One of the highest percentages of “the listing sold” to “listing taken” occur during this time of year.

6.)        You may receive more money for your home now because you have less competition.

7.)        Throughout the holiday season, you may restrict showings during your personal family events.

8.)        Buyers have more time to look at homes during the holidays, especially during vacations.

9.)        January is traditionally the biggest transfer month and you must be on the market to capture that market.

10.)    By selling now you can have a delayed closing or extended occupancy until the beginning of the following year if you want it.

11.)    When you sell during the winter you have an opportunity to buy during the spring, when many homes are on the market.

12.)    You may have fewer actual showings, but more qualified and motivated prospects.

13.)    Corporate transfers, who need to buy a home now, can’t wait until spring.

14.)    If you purchased your home at the peak of pricing and need to sell because of loss of a job or a job transfer, banks are working with homeowners to allow a short sale so you can sell your home with far less impact to your credit than if you lost it to foreclosure.  Undoubtedly with less listing inventory in the winter, short sales will get processed faster by the lenders.

15.)    Homeowners who have owned and lived in their principal residence for five consecutive years within the past eight years may also qualify for a new tax credit of up to $6,500 under the recently signed qualified homeowner tax credit.

16.)    If you’re selling this home and buying another, there’s a 1 in 4 chance that the home you are looking to buy is in a short sale position.  By starting the selling/buying process now you can rest assured that you will close early in the new year, long before potential tax credits can run out for you or the buyers of your home.

17.)    If your home no longer suits the needs of your family, you can sell it now for less than you might hope for, however selling now will enable you to buy a more suitable home at a great price, to lock in low interest rates and to ride the market up in a home, which fits your current needs better.

18.)    A recession is a natural selection process, which weeds out contractors, lenders, appraisers and Realtors who are not highly skilled in their fields. The people you deal with in a real estate transaction at this time are much more likely to be professional and skilled at what they do than in a boom market.

19.)    The current and extended first-time homeowner tax credit allowed incredible numbers of first-time buyers the chance to get into their own home and get $8,000 back in tax credits.  Many of these first time buyers are looking for their home now, not wanting to risk that they won’t have a property under agreement by the April 30^th deadline.

20.)    Curb Appeal.  If your landscape and lawn isn’t that great, breathe a sigh of relief that no one else’s is this time of year, either.   Add seasonal color, a wreath, perhaps some decorations.

I just came across something that I personally love.  It is called “WOT,” web of trust.  This is something free for everyone.  It is a service created by users of the internet to help with navigation of safe and good sites.  You simply download WOT onto your computer.  As you search, WOT will alert you if you are about to click on a bad site…a site known for spamming or phishing, a site filled with spyware or adware, or even if the site is not appropriate for work or children.  I have loaded it onto my computers and also our computers at the offices.  

Now agents can feel free to surf the internet and not get caught in bad sites.  Try it.  It is simply the internet being monitored by all of us users.  It’s about time.  Go to http://www.mywot.com

Happy Talk
Written by Jeff Thredgold, CSP, President, Thredgold Economic Associates

The “dismal science” of economics typically focuses on “bad” news. We clearly face many significant challenges…no argument here. However, there are also many favorable developments taking place within the U.S. economy. This is our semi-annual update of “Happy Talk.”  This Tea Leaf focuses ONLY on the “good” news… 

• The recession is over! The consensus of forecasting economists expects U.S. economic growth during this year’s third quarter to be at a solid 3.0%-4.0% real (after inflation) annual rate, with slightly weaker (but positive!) growth in the fourth quarter and during 2010

• Violent crime dropped slightly during 2008 versus the year before. Violent crime overall is down 55% since 1993, with violence by teens down 71%. School violence has declined by half from a decade ago

• The number of American volunteers rose 2.0% to 61.8 million in 2008. Among young adults, the number of volunteers rose 5.7%

• Air pollution declined 25% over the past 30 years even as the population and the economy grew.  Water quality also continues to improve.  More progress will occur in coming years as companies see rising value in “going green”

• The Dow average has rebounded 50% since its low in early March 2009. The NASDAQ is up 68% from its low

• Alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the most recently reported year dropped by more than half versus 20 years ago

• The global economy seems to have returned to a modest growth pace after suffering its first recession since WWII

• Most companies that have suspended their 401(k) matches in recent quarters plan to reinstate them

• U.S. exports to China have risen roughly 24% per year since 2001, making China the fastest growing market for U.S. goods

• Men’s contribution to housework has doubled over the past 40 years, while their time spent on child care has tripled

• Energy-efficient appliances, cars, buildings, and other technologies that already exist could lower U.S. energy usage 30% by 2030

• Women now make up a record 46% of global MBA candidates. More than 70% of students surveyed name the U.S. as the top MBA study destination

• Productivity of U.S. workers rose an average of 2.6% annually during the past 10 years, the largest gains in 40 years. Rising productivity is a long-term key to higher standards of living

• The number of people who have quit smoking (46 million) now exceeds the number who still smoke (45 million).  Roughly 21% of adults smoke today, versus nearly half in the early 1950s

• Traffic deaths per 100 million miles traveled during 2008 were the lowest on record

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has actually declined 1.5% during the most recent 12-month period, helping to stretch consumer incomes

• The number of people using public transportation hit a 52-year high during 2008

• Conventional thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages have been just slightly above 5.00% in recent weeks, some of the lowest levels on record

• New cancer cases and deaths are falling for the first time since the government began compiling a report on long-term trends

• Average U.S. life expectancy has reached 78 years (men 75, women 80), the highest ever.  This compares to 76 years in 1995, 68 years in 1950, and 47 years in 1900

• For every dollar of U.S. economic output generated today, we burn less than half as much oil as 30 years ago

• The U.S. trade deficit with the world averaged $28 billion monthly during the past six months, down more than half versus an average of $61 billion monthly during 2008’s first half

• Children’s deaths from unintentional injury have dropped by almost 40% since 1987. Bicycle deaths fell 60%, while firearms-related deaths fell 72%

• Roughly 30% of trash was recycled or composted in the latest year, versus 16% in 1990

• A record 50.5 million foreigners visited the U.S. during 2008

• The number of miners killed on the job in the U.S. fell to 51 during 2008, the lowest since record keeping began nearly a century ago

• Seat belt usage by Americans was at 82% in 2007, versus 49% in 1990 and 14% in 1983

• A recent poll of more than 12,000 global business figures conducted by the World Economic Forum ranked the U.S. as the world’s most competitive economy

• A record 29% of men have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher, versus 26% of women, also a record. This compares to a combined 7.7% in 1960.  A record 84.6% of adults over age 25 now have at least a high school diploma, versus 24.5% in 1940

• Donations to charity set an all-time high in 2007, with more than $300 billion donated by individuals, foundations, and corporations.  As a percentage of GDP, Americans gave twice as much as the next most charitable nation…England

• The upward “mobility” of the typical American remains the greatest in the world. Why? The U.S. economy “rewards” the combination of hard work and educational achievement more than ever before…and more than any other country in the world

• During the early 1960s, the five-year survival rate from cancer for Americans was one in three. Today it is two in three…continuing to climb…and the highest in the world

• Substantiated cases of childhood sexual abuse have fallen 49% since 1990.  Physical abuse of children is down by 43%

• More than three million girls participated in high school sports last year, part of a record 7.3 million total participants

• The number of abortions performed in this country has declined by one-third since 1990 and is now at a record low

• Women earned nearly 60% of all bachelor’s degrees awarded in recent years, versus 43% in 1970 and 24% in 1950. Women earned a similar share of master’s degrees

• Fewer people abused prescription drugs during 2008 than the year before 

• U.S. teen pregnancy and birth rates plummeted to all-time lows in recent years, before a slight rise. The reasons? More widespread use of birth control, more work opportunities, and more girls who “just say no”

• Flexible work schedules are now the norm for 43% of workers, up from 29% in 1992 and 13% in 1985. This allows greater flexibility for more people, especially those with children

• Police officer deaths from gunfire during 2008 were the lowest in more than 50 years

• The U.S. role of dominance in the global economy in recent years has been as clear-cut as at any time since the 1950s

 This got me thinking.  How can I start my day off armed with positive news?  I of course, Googled positive news.  There are over 71 million web pages focusing on this.  Wow!  Better late than never I guess. 

Have a GREAT DAY!

Not anymore!!  We are catching Buyers at the end of their searching cycle not the beginning.  They are out driving around in neighborhoods right now and are ready to buy.  Right now they need real time help and we are ready.  We are getting the calls off of our competitors signs. 

HERE IS THE NEW WAY!!

All you need to do is call 630-964-4000 to inquire about ANY LISTED HOME.  That’s right.  Any Listed Home.  Any time.  Anybody can call and get property information on every listed home without  having to call multiple agents.  This way they aren’t “bothered” by 10 different agents trying to get their business.  They also have the availability of pressing 1 on their phone to connect to an agent for additional information, or simply have a text message sent to your cell phone or smart phone with the listing information.  And when you go home, you will  have each property emailed to you so that you can look at everything later in an organized fashion.    As simple as a phone call and everyone know how to operate a cell phone. 

We are finding that the public loves it.  All they need to do is remember 1 phone number 630-964-4000 for all of their Real Estate needs. 

 Sellers love it too!!  We can give detailed information back to our Sellers that wasn’t available before.  We can show them how many people called from the sign.  Did they simply hear the price and hang up, or have they gone further and connected to our mortgage company to get pre-approved?  We can actually show Sellers how many Buyers we have out driving around looking in their subdivision.  Nobody else can give them this info.  It is SUPER. 

Try it.  630-964-4000  enter the home street # (ie 123) and follow the prompts.

Have a great day and a busy summer.

NO MORE EXCUSES. This will be the week we STOP once and for all – ALL the EXCUSES that we have used for not being where we want to be in our lives. It doesn’t matter if its in our business, relationships, health, attitude, personal finance, or anything else. Happiness is something determined PRIOR to any outcome. We decide how we will re-act to any situation that presents itself to us. We decide how we will feel about any particular problem or obstacle. We control 100% what we do and how we do it every single day. We have the ability to stop pointing fingers and blaming others AND start taking responsibility for ourselves and our ACTIONS. We have the power to IMMEDIATELY start doing what we need to do to accomplish our goals and STOP doing those actions that lead us further from them. We do – We ALL do – Right Now.

We might not get there in 1 day, but we will never get there unless we start 1 Day.

Start Today!!!

ENCOURAGEMENT CORNER…

21 Keys to a Happy Life
Source Unknown

1) Compliment three people everyday.
2) Watch a sunrise.
3) Be the first to say “Hello.”
4) Live beneath your means.
5) Treat everyone as you want to be treated.
6) Never give up on anybody; miracles happen.
7) Forget the Jones’s. Remember someone’s name.
9) Pray not for things, but for wisdom and courage.
10) Be tough-minded, but tender hearted.
11) Be kinder than you have to be.
12) Don’t forget that a person’s greatest emotional need is to feel appreciated.
13) Keep your promises.
14) Learn to show cheerfulness even when you don’t feel it.
15) Remember that overnight success usually takes 15 years.
16) Leave everything better than you found it.
17) Remember that winners do what losers don’t want to do.
18) When you arrive at your job in the morning, let the first thing you say brighten everyone’s day.
19) Don’t rain on other people’s parades.
20) Don’t waste an opportunity to tell someone you love them.
21) Keep some things to yourself and don’t promote havoc by backstabbing people you love.

WORDS TO LIVE BY.

He that is good for making excuses is seldom good for anything else.
Benjamin Franklin

We have forty million reasons for failure, but not a single excuse.
Rudyard Kipling

Excuses are the nails used to build a house of failure.
Don Wilder

No one ever excused his way to success.
Dave Del Dotto

An excuse is worse and more terrible than a lie; for an excuse is a lie guarded.
Alexander Pope

I attribute my success to this – I never gave or took any excuse.
Florence Nightingale

Ninety-nine percent of failures come from people who have the habit of making excuses.
George W. Carver

I came across this article from CNN and thought it was great.  It talks about the Recession ending.  It is the perfect article for Sellers to see right now.  It shows how the end is near and how the housing portion will play out.  Buyers and Sellers will be hearing better news in the coming weeks and Sellers might want ot sit tight and hold out for the higher sale price.  We need to show them that, Right Now, is the best time to drop their price and get their home sold.  Buyers will be coming out and bottom feeding in the next few months and Sellers that drop their price will be moving on.  The problem now;  Sellers that think it will get better right away because of the positive news will still be sitting there for many months to come.  Beware of pricing too high in anticipation of a recovering market.  It is time to be the best priced house and the sharpest one right now.  This is the guidance Sellers need from us now.

Economists: Recession to end in 2009
A recovery in the second half of this year will be ‘moderate,’ according to a report from the National Association for Business Economics.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The end of the recession is in sight, according to a new survey of leading economists.

While the economy is showing signs of stabilizing, the recovery will be more moderate than is typical following a severe downturn, said the National Association for Business Economics Outlook in a report released Wednesday.

The panel of 45 economists said it expects economic growth will rebound in the second half of 2009. However, the group still expects to see a decline in second-quarter economic activity.

0:00 /03:11Recovery? Not so fast
"The good news is that the NABEpanel expects economic growth to turn positive in the second half of this year, with the pace of job losses narrowing sharply over the remainder of this year and employment turning up in early 2010," said NABE president Chris Varvares in a written statement.

Almost three out of four survey respondents expect the recession will end by the third quarter of 2009, the report said.

But 19% predicted that a turnaround won’t come until the fourth quarter, and 7% said it may not come until early 2010. None of the panelists expected the recession to continue past the first quarter of next year.

0:00 /02:59How to spot a recovery
GDP: The report predicted a 1.8% decline in real GDP in the second quarter of 2009, bringing the total year-to-date decrease to 3.7%. That’s the biggest drop since 1957-1958, the report said.

Still, “a modest second-half rebound in real GDP is expected,” the report said, with economic growth turning positive in the third quarter. Real GDP growth over the second half of 2009 is expected to average 1.2%, which is well below average, the report said.

"Growth in 2010 is slated for a return to near its historical trend," the report said, predicting a 2.7% year-over-year increase. The NABE’s February outlook had predicted a 3.1% uptick.

0:00 /5:18Call him ‘Dr. Realistic’
Jobs: The panel forecast a total of 4.5 million jobs lost in 2009, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8%. Modest gains in 2010 will reduce the rate to 9.3% by year’s end, the report predicted.

Separate reports this month showed the unemployment rate is currently down in 21 states and stands at 8.9% nationally.

Deficit: Government spending “will provide vital support to the economy,” and will be the only expenditure sector to grow in 2009, the report said.

But that spending will help push the federal deficit to a record-high $1.7 trillion in the 2009 fiscal year, before falling slightly to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2010.

Housing: New and existing home sales are close to their lows, with 72% of NABE panelists expecting sales to hit bottom by the middle of 2009. More than 60% of those surveyed said housing starts would also bottom out at the same time.

The panelists were split on the issue of when home prices will hit their lows: 30% said it would happen by the third quarter of 2009; 30% said the fourth quarter; and 40% said declines will continue into 2010 or later. The median prediction is that home prices will rise 1% in 2010, the report said.

0:00 /2:48Rebuilding housing?
Spending: Widespread job losses and weak income growth have reduced consumer spending and boosted the personal savings rate, the report said. The savings rate has seen two consecutive quarters of sharp increases, holding above 4% through March. More than 70% of the panelists expect “more thrifty behavior is here to stay, at least for the next five years,” the report said.

Credit: Obtaining long-term and short-term financing is still difficult, which poses a risk to the economy, but 90% of respondents said actions from the Federal Reserve have helped to ease the credit crunch.

Five-year outlook: More than half of the NABE economists said they expected potential growth of the U.S. economy over the next five years to be between 2% and 2.5%; 37% of respondents forecast growth between 2.5% and 3%, while 7% of the panelists said growth will be higher than 3%.